WAR-GAME

PRC full decoupling: 8 firms go dark, taking 194 downstream firms with them, including 4 DoD-exposed suppliers, wiping out 32 segments.

Trigger

A full trade decoupling from mainland China and Hong Kong severs commercial ties with every China/HK-headquartered firm in the supply chain.

Assumption

Assumes complete, immediate decoupling — no grace period, no substitution ramp — which is more abrupt than any decoupling policy proposed to date. The 8 cut firms are the 3 largest China/HK-HQ names by market cap plus the 5 with the widest supply-chain reach among the rest — not a ranked top-8 by any single measure. Note: firms with no public market cap and no recorded supply edges in this graph (e.g. closely-held subsidiaries) can score 0 on both measures and be left out even when they are well-known by name — a real gap in graph coverage, not a selection bug.

Question

Beyond the sanctioned subset, how much additional exposure sits in ordinary, not-yet-restricted China/HQ-HK firms embedded in the supply chain?

• InnoLight Technology194 tracks · 4 DoD
• Eoptolink Technology194 tracks · 4 DoD
• SMIC194 tracks · 4 DoD
• Hwatsing Technology197 tracks · 4 DoD
• Kingsemi197 tracks · 4 DoD
• NAURA Technology197 tracks · 4 DoD
• National Silicon Industry Group197 tracks · 4 DoD
• Piotech197 tracks · 4 DoD