WAR-GAME

China materials counter-cut: 8 firms go dark, taking 197 downstream firms with them, including 4 DoD-exposed suppliers, wiping out 32 segments.

Trigger

The mirror image of the other scenarios: China restricts materials exports to the West instead of the West restricting sales to China. China's Ministry of Commerce has run an escalating sequence since late 2024 — a December 2024 ban on gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite exports to the US; an April 2025 licensing regime covering seven rare-earth elements and related magnets; an October 2025 rule extending licensing to any foreign-made product containing more than 0.1% China-origin rare-earth content; a partial suspension of that extraterritorial rule in November 2025 as part of a trade truce; and a June-July 2026 re-escalation applying licensing requirements to additional EU-headquartered firms.

Assumption

Two honest limits, not one. (1) The raw rare-earth and gallium/germanium miners and refiners named in the real export-control actions above are not semiconductor firms and are not tracked in this graph — the cut below reaches only China/Hong Kong-headquartered firms already in the graph's materials segment (silicon wafers, substrates, photoresists and specialty chemicals, specialty gases, sputtering targets), the graph's nearest proxy for that materials leverage, not the export-control actions themselves. (2) Same total-loss, no-substitution assumption as every other scenario — no drawdown of buyer inventory, no re-qualification of alternate sources mid-crisis. With exactly 8 China/HK-HQ materials firms in the graph today, this scenario cuts all of them; the anchor+fill rule still governs the ordering.

Question

How much of Western semiconductor fabrication depends on China-origin materials inputs today, and is that exposure concentrated in a few chokepoint firms or diffuse across the materials layer?

• Shengyi Technology195 tracks · 4 DoD
• Shennan Circuits195 tracks · 4 DoD
• Kingboard Holdings195 tracks · 4 DoD
• National Silicon Industry Group197 tracks · 4 DoD
• Suzhou Crystal Clear Chemical (Jingrui)0 tracks · 0 DoD
• Ningbo Jiangfeng Electronic Material (Konfoong)0 tracks · 0 DoD
• Jiangsu Nata Opto-electronic Material (Nanda Optoelectronics)0 tracks · 0 DoD
• TanKeBlue Semiconductor0 tracks · 0 DoD