REPLAY
Historical backtest, not a live simulation. Run the model against a real, documented supply-chain shock and see exactly where the modeled cascade matched public reporting — and where it didn't. Three honest buckets, never a single accuracy percentage.
Renesas Naka fab — 2011 Tohoku earthquake: no documented ground-truth firms from this event are present in the graph at all; 6 documented firms fall outside this graph's scope; the cascade also flagged 2 additional firms not named in this replay's public reporting.
- The March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami damaged Renesas Electronics' Naka campus, which produced as much as 40% of the world's automotive microcontroller supply, knocking it offline for roughly three months.
- Runs this graph's CURRENT supply edges for Renesas against a historical event — not a 2011-accurate edge set (Renesas' listed customers here, e.g. Tesla and Bosch, reflect today's graph, not 2011 relationships). The real-world documented impact was almost entirely downstream automotive OEMs, which this graph deliberately excludes by scope (see the shared design decision in docs/SPEC-PHASE-A.md) — so this replay is a stress test of the graph's COVERAGE, not just its cascade math.
- How much of a documented real-world shock is even visible to a semiconductor-only supply graph, and where exactly does that scope boundary sit?
No in-graph ground-truth firms were reached.
No misses — every in-graph documented firm was reached.
- Toyota Motor Corp
Named a direct Renesas customer; a shortage of 150+ parts left Toyota's North American operations at 30% of capacity for several weeks, and Toyota's own executive vice president called the resulting electronics/microcontroller shortage the company's single biggest obstacle to resuming production.
- Nissan Motor
Named a direct Renesas customer in Japan; US dealers went from about 40,000 Nissan units imported in March 2011 to roughly 7,500 expected in May 2011 as the microcontroller shortage cut output.
- Honda Motor
Named a direct Renesas customer in Japan; Honda suspended production of three of its top-selling US models and reported quarterly (Jan-Mar 2011) income down 38% to $545 million.
- General Motors
Named a direct overseas Renesas customer affected by the microcontroller shortage following the Naka fab damage (roughly 30% of Naka's output went to US/European automakers).
- Ford Motor
Named a direct overseas Renesas customer affected by the microcontroller shortage following the Naka fab damage.
- Chrysler
Documented among the automakers that curtailed production as a result of the post-earthquake Japanese parts and microcontroller shortage.
The cascade also reached these firms with no matching entry in the documented ground truth above. Public reporting is incomplete — these are predictions, not confirmed documented impacts.
This graph is semiconductor-supply-chain-scoped by design and deliberately excludes downstream automotive OEM nodes — every documented 2011 impact firm here falls in the outside-coverage bucket for that reason, not because the cascade got anything wrong. Separately, the cascade runs on TODAY's Renesas supply edges, not a 2011-accurate edge set: any in-graph firm it reaches (e.g. Tesla, Bosch) reflects a present-day relationship, not a documented 2011 impact, and is reported as an undocumented prediction rather than a hit or miss.