REPLAY
Historical backtest, not a live simulation. Run the model against a real, documented supply-chain shock and see exactly where the modeled cascade matched public reporting — and where it didn't. Three honest buckets, never a single accuracy percentage.
Nexperia — 2025 Dutch seizure & China export halt: the cascade reached 1 of 1 documented in-graph firm (missed 0 firms); 8 documented firms fall outside this graph's scope.
- On September 30, 2025 the Dutch government invoked the Cold War-era Goods Availability Act to take control of Nexperia, the Netherlands-based chipmaker owned by China's Wingtech. Beijing retaliated with export controls on chips assembled at Nexperia's Dongguan, China facility, cutting off the bulk of Nexperia's shipments to Western automakers by late October 2025.
- Runs this graph's CURRENT supply edges for Nexperia against the real event. Nexperia originally had ZERO recorded supply edges in this graph; this backtest exposed that gap, and a Nexperia→Bosch customer edge was then added from cited 2025 reporting (Phase B, 2026-08). That edge comes from the SAME after-event reporting used as ground truth here — so for Bosch specifically this is a coverage fix verified against the event, not a blind pre-event prediction.
- Real-world reporting names Bosch, Volkswagen, Honda, Nissan and others as directly hit within weeks — does this graph's current edge set capture any of that, or is Nexperia a total blind spot?
- Robert Bosch GmbH
Implemented furloughs/reduced hours at three plants (Salzgitter, Ansbach, and Braga, Portugal) due to the Nexperia supply halt. Bosch is the one ground-truth firm in this graph; the cascade reaches it via the Nexperia→Bosch edge added from this same 2025 reporting after the backtest first exposed the missing-edge gap.
No misses — every in-graph documented firm was reached.
- Volkswagen Group
Halted production of the Golf and Tiguan at Wolfsburg and the ID.3/ID.4/ID.5 EVs at Zwickau starting October 29, 2025 due to the Nexperia chip halt.
- Honda Motor
Suspended production at its Celaya, Mexico plant from October 28 and adjusted output at Japan/China/North America plants; Honda estimated the shortage cost it roughly ¥150 billion ($969M) and about 110,000 North American units.
- Nissan Motor
Cut Rogue SUV production by roughly 900 vehicles at its Kyushu plant for the week of November 10, 2025 due to the Nexperia shortage.
- General Motors
CEO Mary Barra confirmed GM was working with suppliers around the clock to minimize Nexperia-driven production disruption.
- Stellantis
Publicly confirmed it was monitoring the Nexperia shortage and assessing production mitigation strategies.
- Volvo Cars
CEO Håkan Samuelsson warned that some factories would likely have to shut down over the Nexperia shortage.
- BMW
Confirmed supplier-network disruption from the Nexperia shortage while stating production continued as planned.
- Mercedes-Benz
Reported near-term chip supply as secure but said it was closely monitoring potential Nexperia-driven gaps.
When first run (2026-08), this backtest found Nexperia with ZERO recorded supply edges — Bosch, a documented real-world casualty present in the graph, showed as a miss purely for lack of the edge. The Nexperia→Bosch edge was then added from cited 2025 reporting, so Bosch now registers as a hit. Full disclosure: that edge is sourced from the same after-event reporting used as ground truth here, so the Bosch hit validates the cascade LOGIC over a corrected graph — it is not a blind pre-event prediction. Every other ground-truth entry is an automaker and falls outside this graph's semiconductor-only scope by design.